SSS Part 9: On the State of the Series + Mar 13 vs CGY (plus two more games later)

On the State of the Series:

I wanted to diversify the blog a bit from just one project so I went walkabout for a lil on this Leon deal. 

I also was a bit exasperated with my premise. I'm always quite a bit further ahead in games analysed than is published, yet don't want my present thoughts colouring the whatever current game I'm doing and it wasn't really working ignoring it so I'll address it:

A lot of the material covered has been about process and not necessarily just results. The goal share was lost by Leon, but instead of assuming it could have been better, could it not have been worse? Instead of the optimistic(sort of) view that the goaltending failing his unit and betraying the shot share numbers, was the goaltending actually stronger than we could hope for as average? That's to say, is Draisaitl not just not good defensively, but outright bad?

Where I'm at with that question is a hard no.

We've seen and we'll see stuff like defencemen blowing tires, making ridiculous pinches, soft goals and other oddities that rob Draisaitl of even the responsibility to bear the goals against number.

I've been sort of exasperated, I was expecting more smoke to the fire, where's the errors in processing or effort? Don't get me wrong, as a fan of the team, I'm thrilled that the problem seems to be less than it's spoken about, but again in the spirit of the project I'd hoped there'd be more to chew on.

So then, where do you go from there? I think you might have to just smoke out the goals.

When splitting game logs for other reasons including upcoming project work, I came across an interesting tidbit.

Leon's final tally way from McDavid was 28 goals for, 38 against, minus-10.

At Christmas, that number was 10 to 10.

So basically, the entirety of the GA problem occurred in the final 46 games.

In those splits, though, the score and venue adjusted possession and chance stats (from 5v5 play) also dive some:

(pre Christmas / / post Christmas)

CF%: 55.64% / / 47.06%

SCF%: 57.63% / / 45.23%

HDCF%: 53.97% / / 43.55%

This is pretty drastic stuff, but as I noted in my Yamamoto piece it's important to contextualise into the team environment. The entire (non-McDavid) team had similar woes, I'd suggest both tactical changes and individual player's level of play dropping off to varying degrees. Here's the non 97 or 29 follows.

CF%: 51.33% / / 45.89%

SCF% 51.11% / / 43.12%

HDCF%: 52.65% / / 37.94%

(Observe the second column's numbers, put them in your pocket for this coming fall when the heart, emotion, or any other type of feelings fortitude is called into question as a reason for the team's failings)

So a lot of those 28 goals we'll see on the way, but I want to compile them for the end of the series, that's what I'll do. I think one good look like that at the end will put this thing to bed.

March 13th vs CGY

Going in, we've got a goal here, and a few more saves forced.

Another thing to mention when it comes to the post-Christmas split, for Leon in particular, is quality of linemates. This is post-deadline but pre-demotion for Cammaleri and Lucic, so that's what Drai's saddled with here. They're not the worst of the bunch, but consider one of the wingers of the matchup is Johnny Gaudreau.

Also of note is the large minutes share with Russell-Bear.

Quick note: on the breakout I'll always prefer Leon to make a power move on his forechecker rather than throw the puck up for the tip-in, but tip-ins are a regular fixture in the NHL that I'm literally always against, so that's bias.

Bear getting his stick taken away makes a clean shot really easy, but Drai's backpressure ends the threat and the puck tumbles to the boards, where the Flame continues to mishandle and Leon grabs the puck, reverses it, and goes for a change. Russell never intends to make a clean breakout play here, so he's got to actually get that puck out but he doesn't, and I'm not sure if Drai's recorded as being on the bench yet so I left this part of the clip in.

There's an extended Benny Hill theme deserving breakout process here that Drai's up the ice during and it results in what is probably another marker on our map through no real fault of his own.

Which brings us again to the propensity of the coaching staff to have Drai play F2/3, with a veteran down low. (It was Cammaleri on this line and others, which is why I wasn't too surprised when he was 4C at some point down the stretch, the coach trusted him more than other options)

Going in I thought we'd see a lot more of actual F1/Centre duties being paid by Leon but we don't. It'd be really useful for the future of this team and the play at that position for him to have just played the position in the garbage time but I understand the coach feeling like his job was on the line because had he finished the season with closer to 70 points he'd have been gone by this point.

An opportunity for a clean entry gets turned into a nightmare here after a poor pass, eventually Russell puts up a wall really well and the play ends up outside to Leon who could have more carefully made the play up the boards, but in the end the Oilers are spared.

Again, there's a netfront attempt here. We've covered 3 of the 5 non-goal slot area tries.

There's probably nobody in the league you want to leave that alone with your goalie less than that guy.

It's his game, though, he's sneaky.

You can see him hanging out by his lonesome in the left corner earlier when the play goes around to the boards, when the play goes to the D originally I was about to ask myself why they were changing a forward at that time, before the camera pans and you notice Gaudreau was hiding off-screen.

It's a no win with him, he can do so much with so little space that you don't want to test what he can do in open ice, but then the other end of his game revolves around perfectly finding seams that open up when you pursue him.

 Darnell never knows he's there, and this is a combination of both the system playing harder to the man (no man in front of the net; not necessary to be in front of the net) and the breakout philosophy of having every player move up the ice as quick as possible during a possession change which punishes poor decision making by both teams harder.

Nice shot, nice goal, fuck you, let's move along.

Another slot shot on our map results from Bear making a play he can't make if he's gonna get out skated on the transition.

This showcases pretty perfectly two of the hurdles Ethan has to get over to become an NHL regular: decision making on stepping up, and turning/skating quicker.

To be fair, if he fixes one he fixes the other. You end up seeing a lot of Bears mistakes pouring through these minutes like I am, so from time to time I should mention I think he's good and I like that they gave him the opportunity.

However, like the biased critic I am, I'll turn that into the question of why the young wingers didn't get the same development-over-wins-column treatment.

This is actually a really funny clip, something about the way the Oilers played this as if they were winning 10-0, the gentleman's change by McLellan and Gulutzan, Lucic coming down because Bear was playing Bakersfield's DZ structure, there's just so much going on.

I think Milan barked at the kid to let him know what was up, but it didn't work so the Flame still got the shot off clean.

If you've been counting, that's all six down-low shots from the map. I didn't get to draw on these much because of Drai playing up high, but I'm marking this one down in the 'created more than he gave up' column, even if the bar wasn't too high.

March 14 vs SJS

The map's missing for this one, but we can still see the game's a microcosm of our study: an equal share of shots, but zero goals for and three against.

Huh.

This is a play where, as fourth guy in Puljujarvi's got to be higher up, there's a seam between the two highest Sharks that he needs to hit for the pass to be any safe at all. Draisaitl can just choose not to take the risk, too. Really tough play. 98 almost gets back, which is impressive but even if he had that'd just be a mistake of pace by the Sharks.

This was a common type of GA against the Oilers 17-18, they held leads like a drunken gambler.

The first half of this clip is a great summary of the trouble having two same handed guys on a pairing gives you.

Sekera draws one forechecker right to him, and the second one to his side of the ice as well. If Russell's right handed, he can take a pass like this in stride and immediately skate or pass it out. Instead, he's gotta be turned around from the start, and he reverses back to find a guy who's cover has had plenty of time to get on him and the puck ends up back where it started.

2 draws time for 4 again, and again an easy pass for a right shot gets handled poorly and ends up going off the wall and out as if the forecheck outplayed the breakout, instead of the other way around.

The Sharks do the Shark thing and Burns throws it through layers at the net, dice comes up Oilers(it's heavily weighted that way with point shots, even Burns') and they clear.

This is an unnecessarily hard flip-in by a guy with Puljujarvi's feet, but Bear recovers the puck and does a nice little give and go play with Drai who absolutely loves sitting in that right corner in the OZ. I like the slapper here because he's in close enough and the pass is fast enough, and 98 or 27 will cash this a lot of the time in any year other than last. I left the last part of the clip in to show Drai staying in position on an assignment down low.

I saved and uploaded this clip solely because I love this entire shift by Pulujarvi. What a beauty.

This is a classic 'leading' play in the NZ, where the second layer of checking is so weak and so far back that it's a literal 4 on 2 by the blueline based on who's already skating. Drai has to cover the kick-out here so that his Dman can actually contest the carrier, but he doesn't follow and the first guy who gets a stick on this play is actually Puljujarvi which is pretty bad. Then later, a Shark comes in off the wall into three(3!) Oilers and walks everyone. Drai's in the right place for a rebound that probably should have just been in the net, and clears it. Very ugly shift.

Lucic gets walked here too, which is what's basically gonna happen no matter what - IF you're standing still with that much of a gap on a good player. It's a positioning error, not an effort/execution error, despite what this type of play usually gets called by fans and some media. It's why hitting a trailer is so dangerous, why it's attempted so often.

Later on, you really just need to get that Shark out of the net. Some people talk about Puljujarvi needing to discover a mean streak, but really he's just got to use his body here. He bodied this guy with less purpose I've seen him do by accident.

March 17 vs FLA

This is a game where they lost the goal battle undeservedly if you look at the raw shots, but on the map you'll notice the slot activity's pretty well the same. On the video you'll see reasons for this, and I want to use the opportunity to tackle some of the stuff I've got beef with in the attacking structure that I hope to see less of next year.

Boughner hard-matches, by the way, for anyone who noticed that. It's not just this game. He's gonna have a good team to do that with by the way next year, bet the over on the Cats.

(Also notice the completeness of the TOI Drai played this game, individually a fine game for him.)

Caggiula races to cover for Larsson stepping in, and as the play runs down the ice Matheson's gonna end up just walking in unchecked as it seems like both Slepyshev and Draisaitl want to play like they're last man back. Slepyshev wants to cover the guy he's facing, but just by ordering he should be F2 and go on Matheson. Drai sees that not happening and doesn't really react though, and as a result there's a three on two down low. Nurse stepping back all the way to the front of the net is important for later, too.

Darnell, here, should absolutely be playing to the other side of Larsson and his man. He ends up completely outside of any check, and there's almost no way for the play to go anywhere else considering the two Cats left in the clear

Leon makes a timely and necessary switch here in a play where a player could easily be fooled. Wanted to show this as a credit to him, could have been a tap-in. 

He makes an angry against replacement stop behind the net and they're free.

Here's a good play for looking at how the team with McDavid off the ice isn't very dangerous despite prolonged possession.

You can see an extended period of time with five Panthers down low, but the team's got the puck behind the net well clear of any checking but you can see Caggiula doesn't even look at the slot before going low to high. That's likely coached.

Then, when the puck gets to Bear note the sheer amount of space that's opened up. And then as Bear winds, note that the two net-front guys leave the screening immediately, signalling it's an intentional back boards play.

So then they've got all kinds of space in the middle high slot, but Drai doesn't even look and runs it back up high.

This play off the 'high cycle' was a common one for the Oilers last year. It's something of a give and go with options on both wings, and results this time in another flip down low. 

The puck gets recovered and thrown back up high.

Anyone else wondering what the end goal is here?

I understand they don't draw it up like "yeah let's use 40 seconds of OZ pressure of our second line to go low to high to low to high to low to high to point shot block and goal against" but if the way the team is utilizing the given tactics ends up with these results the process must change. Regardless of who's to blame or how much.

A winger misses on a clear by forcing it up the wall with a middle option available, then fumbles the outlet after Klefbom recovers. Draisaitl recognises the outnumbering on the re-entry, and we've got a bad angle for figuring if it was him or Oscar that breaks up the play

Caggiula looks off the easy pass to Slepyshev, and finds Draisaitl with a boards play.

This would result in a breakaway off the line-change, but either bounces or Matheson somehow take the play away before it starts.

Bjugstad's dumb-ass reach catches this play, miraculously (and not entirely legally, though the refs often the give the defender lots of leeway on catch-up plays like this). It's a waste of a gorgeous pass by Draisaitl.

Bear doesn't shoulder check very soon after hustling back towards the net, so he doesn't know the type of gap that's left to the third Panther in and resultantly there's all the time in the world to get a shot off, but the guy takes all of that and more and Bear recovers to stymie the attempt.

Pretty funny back and forth here, I'm not sure if they counted it as a shot attempt on the map. If it did, we've got a bit of context on another (coulda been) dangerous play where Leon's just kind of the last guy back.

There's a winger switch here because of some erratic energy-based(post-icings) stuff where the coach was pretty much forced to send different combinations out in order to have the freshest legs out to kill the clock.

I show this because it's another example of Leon playing high that kind of kills our premise of dangerous outshooting based on errors by him down low. Between the smaller amount of time spent on those duties in the first place and the perfectly fine ratio of mistakes when he is, I think I'm building myself a case here.